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The Grand National is the UK’s most famous horse race, held annually at Aintree Racecourse near Liverpool. With over 180 years of history, it’s known as one of the toughest and most unpredictable challenges in horse racing, featuring a demanding course of 4 miles and 514 yards, with 30 fences that test both horse and jockey to their limits.
Over the years, the Grand National has provided some of the most thrilling moments in sport. From Red Rum’s three victories (1973, 1974, and 1977) to the emotional triumph of Tiger Roll, who won in 2018 and 2019, it’s a race that captures the imagination of millions of fans and punters alike.
But how can you pick the winner of such a notoriously difficult race?
Below are 5 key pointers to help you increase your chances of selecting the next Grand National champion.
1. Look for Experience Over the Fences:
One of the most important factors in finding a Grand National winner is a horse’s experience over the unique Aintree fences. The course is famous for its large, tricky obstacles, with names like Becher’s Brook, The Chair, and Foinavon fence becoming iconic in racing folklore. Horses that have tackled these fences before, whether in a previous Grand National or in Aintree’s other meetings, are often at an advantage.
Look for horses with form in long-distance chases, especially those who have previously run well at Aintree. In recent years, several winners had prior experience over the fences, such as Many Clouds, who triumphed in 2015 after finishing sixth the year before. Similarly, Tiger Roll had competed in cross-country races and had previous Grand National experience before his back-to-back victories in 2018 and 2019.
2. Focus on Stamina:
The Grand National is one of the longest races in the UK, so stamina is crucial. Horses need to have the endurance to last the grueling distance, especially in the final stages when the field thins out, and the remaining runners need to dig deep to reach the finish line.
When analyzing the form, look for horses that have proven they can stay long distances. Horses that have won or performed well in other marathon races, such as the Welsh Grand National, the Scottish Grand National, or the Irish Grand National, should be considered strong contenders. In 2016, Rule The World, a winner of the Irish Grand National, demonstrated the importance of stamina by going on to win at Aintree.
3. Consider the Weight Factor:
The Grand National is a handicap race, meaning that each horse carries a different weight, depending on its official rating. Higher-rated horses carry more weight, while lower-rated horses are given a lighter burden. This can play a significant role in determining the outcome, as carrying too much weight over such a long distance can be detrimental.
Historically, horses carrying more than 11 stone have found it difficult to win the Grand National. In fact, from 1984 to 2009, no horse carrying more than 11 stone won the race. However, in recent years, a few classier horses carrying heavier weights, such as Many Clouds (2015) and Neptune Collonges (2012), have bucked the trend. Nevertheless, it’s generally a good idea to focus on horses carrying around 10st 6lb to 11st 2lb, as they often strike the right balance between quality and manageability.
4. Check Recent Form:
Form leading up to the Grand National is always an important factor. A horse coming into the race on the back of good performances in similar long-distance handicaps is a strong contender. Pay particular attention to horses that have placed well in their last few outings, especially in high-profile races.
However, don’t discount horses that have perhaps had one or two off days but shown consistent form before that. For example, Don’t Push It had a patchy season before winning the 2010 Grand National under jockey Tony McCoy, but his earlier form showed promise, and his class eventually shone through.
5. Age and Fitness Matter:
The age of the horse is another significant aspect to consider when picking a Grand National winner. Historically, horses aged between 8 and 11 have dominated the race, with very few winners outside this range. Horses that are too young may lack the necessary experience and stamina, while older horses might struggle to keep up with the demands of the race.
Fitness is equally important. Horses that have raced too often in the season might not have enough left in the tank, while those that have been lightly raced could be lacking sharpness. Look for a balance, with horses that have had a handful of runs in the season but not too many, suggesting they are fresh and ready for the challenge.
Aintree Hero – Red Rum
Conclusion:
Picking the Grand National winner is always a challenge, and with a field of 40 runners, the unpredictability of the race is what makes it so exciting. However, by focusing on these five key factors—experience over the fences, stamina, weight carried, recent form, and age/fitness—you can significantly improve your chances of landing on a horse that has a strong chance of victory.
The thrill of watching your selection jump the iconic fences, weave through the field, and charge toward the finish line is an experience like no other. With a bit of research and a keen eye, you might just find yourself backing the next Grand National hero.
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