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The Grand National is one of the most exciting and unpredictable horse races in the world. Each year, millions of people place their bets, hoping to pick the winner from a field of 40 runners. While some rely on the luck of the draw, others seek out methods and strategies to narrow down their selection. Here’s a really easy way to pick the Grand National winner, along with some wise words from a professional gambler.
1. Look at Horses with Previous Grand National Experience:
One of the best tips for picking a Grand National winner is to focus on horses that have run in the race before. This is not just because of the distance (a grueling 4 miles and 2½ furlongs) but also due to the unique nature of the Aintree fences. These fences are larger and more intimidating than the average racecourse hurdles. Horses with previous experience of tackling these obstacles are far more likely to know what they’re in for and may handle the challenge better.
Horses that have finished the race in the top five in previous years should always be on your radar. They’ve proven they can stay the course and have the stamina and jumping ability required.
2. Focus on Horses Aged 8 to 11:
The Grand National is a marathon, and it requires a horse that has both youth and experience. Historically, horses aged between 8 and 11 have the best track record in the race. This age range combines peak physical fitness with sufficient racing experience to deal with the demands of Aintree. Younger horses, while full of energy, often lack the stamina, while older horses may struggle to maintain their form over such a long distance.
3. Check the Weight Carried:
The Grand National is a handicap race, meaning horses carry different weights depending on their ability. Those considered the best will carry more weight, which can make the race even more difficult. However, history shows that horses carrying 11 stone or less tend to fare better.
A horse burdened with over 11 stone is likely to find the final stages of the race tough, especially on soft ground. Stick to horses that are carrying weights within a manageable range to increase your chances of finding the winner.
4. Follow the Form:
It’s crucial to study the horse’s recent form leading up to the Grand National. Look for horses that have been performing well in long-distance chases, particularly over three miles or more. A horse that has been running well in these races is more likely to have the stamina for the Grand National.
Also, take note of the conditions under which the horse has performed best. If rain is forecast, look for horses that have shown an ability to handle soft or heavy ground.
5. Trust the Jockey and Trainer Combo:
The Grand National is a team effort, and a successful jockey and trainer combination can make a significant difference. Look for trainers who have a strong track record in the race and pair that with an experienced jockey. Some jockeys, like Ruby Walsh and Leighton Aspell, have become synonymous with Grand National success, and their ability to navigate the race is invaluable.
Wise Words from a Professional Gambler:
A professional gambler once said, “The Grand National is a puzzle, but not an unsolvable one. Stick to horses aged 8 to 11, carrying less than 11 stone, and with proven stamina in long-distance chases. The field is large, but so are the clues.”
When asked about the importance of odds, the gambler added, “Don’t get drawn in by the big prices. The winner often comes from the middle of the market. You want a horse around 10/1 to 20/1—big enough to give you a return but not so long a shot that you’re banking on a miracle.”
Conclusion:
While the Grand National is never an easy race to predict, you can certainly improve your chances by focusing on the factors that matter—experience, age, weight, form, and jockey-trainer partnerships. By following these simple steps and keeping an eye on the odds, you’ll put yourself in a much better position to pick the Grand National winner and, with a little luck, celebrate a big win!
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